The graveyard of failed mobile games is filled with titles that launched too early. Great core loops destroyed by poor economy balancing. Promising concepts killed by D7 retention cliffs. Monetization that never quite worked. These failures share a common thread: insufficient soft launch.
I've overseen soft launches for games that went on to gross $100M+ and games that never made it past Australia. The difference wasn't always the game itself—it was how rigorously we tested, how honestly we evaluated data, and how willing we were to iterate before scaling.
This guide shares everything I've learned about soft launching mobile games the right way.
What Is a Soft Launch, Really?
A soft launch is a limited release designed to validate your game before committing significant marketing budget. Think of it as a real-world A/B test with actual players, real money, and genuine feedback.
The goals are simple:
- Validate core gameplay metrics (retention, engagement)
- Test and optimize monetization
- Identify technical issues at scale
- Develop scalable UA creative
- Establish baseline KPIs for global launch decisions
Choosing Your Soft Launch Markets
Market selection is crucial. You need markets that provide meaningful data without alerting competitors or burning through your target audience.
Tier 1 Soft Launch Markets
| Market | Pros | Cons | Best For |
|---|---|---|---|
| Australia | English-speaking, high LTV, iOS/Android balanced | Small, expensive CPIs, competitor attention | Premium/mid-core games |
| Canada | Similar to US audience, good data quality | Competitor monitoring, limited scale | US-targeted games |
| New Zealand | Very similar to Australia, less saturated | Tiny market, limited scale | Initial technical testing |
Tier 2 Soft Launch Markets
| Market | Pros | Cons | Best For |
|---|---|---|---|
| Philippines | English-speaking, cheap CPIs, good scale | Lower LTV, different monetization behavior | Casual games, retention testing |
| Netherlands | High English proficiency, strong LTV | Small market | European-targeted games |
| Nordic Countries | High LTV, good data quality | Small combined population | Mid-core/strategy games |
The Two-Phase Approach
Start in Tier 2 markets (Philippines, Indonesia) for cheap retention/engagement testing, then graduate to Tier 1 (Australia, Canada) for monetization and LTV validation. This saves budget while providing quality data where it matters most.
The KPIs That Matter
Soft launch drowns you in data. Focus on the metrics that actually predict global launch success:
Retention Benchmarks by Genre
| Genre | D1 | D7 | D30 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hyper-casual | 35-45% | 8-15% | 2-5% |
| Casual Puzzle | 40-50% | 15-25% | 5-10% |
| Mid-core | 35-45% | 12-20% | 5-10% |
| Strategy/4X | 30-40% | 15-25% | 8-15% |
| RPG | 35-45% | 15-25% | 7-12% |
The Soft Launch Phases
Phase 1: Technical Soft Launch (1-2 weeks)
Launch in a small market (New Zealand or Philippines) to catch technical issues:
- Crash rates and ANRs
- Server load testing
- Device compatibility issues
- Payment flow verification
- Analytics implementation validation
Success criteria: Crash-free rate >99%, all analytics firing correctly.
Phase 2: Retention Soft Launch (4-8 weeks)
Focus purely on engagement and retention. Don't worry about monetization yet:
- D1/D7/D30 retention tracking
- Session length and frequency
- Funnel analysis (where do players quit?)
- Core loop engagement metrics
- Qualitative feedback collection
Success criteria: Hit genre retention benchmarks, clear engagement patterns.
Phase 3: Monetization Soft Launch (4-8 weeks)
With retention validated, optimize for revenue:
- IAP conversion rate testing
- Price point optimization
- Ad monetization tuning (if applicable)
- ARPDAU and LTV modeling
- Economy balancing
Success criteria: Positive LTV:CPI ratio at scale.
Phase 4: UA Soft Launch (2-4 weeks)
Validate that you can acquire users profitably:
- Creative testing at scale
- Channel performance comparison
- Audience targeting refinement
- CPI benchmarking
- ROAS projection validation
Success criteria: Profitable UA at target scale with validated creative.
The Kill Criteria
Before soft launch, define the metrics that would kill the project. If D1 retention is below 30% after two months of iteration, maybe this game shouldn't launch. Having clear kill criteria prevents sunk cost fallacy from burning more resources.
Common Soft Launch Mistakes
1. Launching Too Early
The game needs to be "soft launch ready," not "alpha ready." Polish matters—players in soft launch markets are real customers with real expectations.
2. Insufficient Sample Size
You need thousands of users for statistically significant data. Running with 500 users and drawing conclusions is dangerous.
3. Ignoring Qualitative Feedback
Numbers tell you what's happening. Reviews, support tickets, and community feedback tell you why. Both matter.
4. Over-Iterating Without Direction
Changing everything at once makes it impossible to know what worked. Test one hypothesis at a time.
5. Premature Global Launch
Pressure to launch—from investors, stakeholders, or competitors—kills more games than bad soft launches. If metrics aren't there, don't launch.
The Go/No-Go Decision
After 3-6 months of soft launch, you face the decision: global launch or kill?
Green Lights for Global Launch
- Retention meets or exceeds genre benchmarks
- LTV:CPI ratio of 1.5x or higher (accounting for scale)
- Clear path to profitability within 6 months
- Validated creative with room for iteration
- Technical stability at projected scale
Red Flags That Suggest Killing
- D1 retention below genre floor despite iteration
- No viable path to LTV:CPI profitability
- Fundamental core loop problems
- Competitive landscape shifted during soft launch
- Team conviction lost
From Soft Launch to Worldwide
Global launch isn't an ending—it's a new beginning. The habits you built during soft launch (testing, iterating, data-driven decisions) should continue at larger scale.
The best-performing games I've worked on treated global launch as the start of a new soft launch phase: testing in smaller markets before scaling globally, validating creative before spending millions, and constantly iterating on the live game.
Soft launch isn't just a phase. It's a mindset—one that separates games that thrive from games that survive.
Scale Your Soft Launch with Confidence
ClicksFlyer helps mobile game studios manage soft launch campaigns across markets with unified analytics, real-time KPI tracking, and seamless integration with major ad networks. See exactly how your game performs before you scale.